CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32313/-1
CME Note: Wide, faint CME first seen by SOHO LASCO C2 in the NW beginning at 2024-07-29T02:00Z, as well as in later frames by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. A possible source of this eruption is a small region of dimming and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211 beginning at approximately 2024-07-28T23:00Z located in the vicinity of AR 3762 (S11W46) exhibiting more Northern deflection. This eruption may occur near the eruption associated with CME: 2024-07-29T02:12Z. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32322/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T07:27Z
2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=45.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T08:06Z
2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=750.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-07-29T18:05Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-01T07:25Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T06:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T15:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240729_080700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 69.42 hour(s)
Difference: 0.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-07-29T19:22Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement